Gold 6 broke the 1400 mark for the first time, and many institutions joined the bullish ranks

Gold 6 broke the 1400 mark for the first time, and many institutions joined the bullish ranks
Outbreak!Just now, the price of gold rose above $ 1,400 for the first time in 6 years!Seeing up to $ 1600, countries laughed!Aunt is panicking?  China Fund News reporter Zhang Yanbei, under the influence of multiple positives, the price of gold has risen steadily, breaking the $ 1,400 mark in one fell swoop.  After the US Federal Reserve opened the door to lower interest rates following the world ‘s largest tide of easing, the market direction has changed drastically in just two days. The latest closing price of gold has stood strong at the 1400 mark, hitting a nearly six-year high; the U.S. dollar has the largest in the next year.Two-day decline.  Gold 6 broke the 1400 mark for the first time for the first time.  Spot gold closed up for 4 consecutive days on Friday (June 21), the highest intraday US market reached 1411.20 US dollars per ounce, rose to a 6-year high, the price of gold has risen above the 1400 mark, fell back after rushing higher, and then resumed the upward trend, approaching the 1400 mark, recording the strongest week in three years.The US dollar index continued to fall on Friday, hitting a minimum of 96.15, approaching the 96 mark.  At last Friday’s close, the New York market gold price was reported at 1,400 per ounce.1.The price of gold for August delivery rose 4 this week.1%, the largest weekly increase in the most active contract since April 2016.  In June, in less than a month, the price of gold has soared more than 130 US dollars, climbing directly from 1,280 US dollars to 1,410 US dollars / maximum, and gradually expanded to 10%.  The popularity of the Fed’s “Dove” boosted the popularity of gold again, and stimulated the price of gold to soar this month, which is the result of many factors.  Gold price has been at 1150 for the past 6 years?Fluctuations between $ 1,350 have almost become a rule for investors to reset. Most of them believe that $ 1,350 is a strong level and a “bad dream point” for gold bulls. Whenever the price of gold approaches $ 1,350 / length, The selling pressure will be significantly strengthened, suppressing the price of gold.  However, this “bad dream spot” was successfully broken on the 19th local time-that was just before the announcement of the Federal Reserve’s June interest rate statement.  In the early morning of June 20, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the federal funds target rate2.25% -2.50% unchanged, and said that the uncertainty facing the US economy is increasing, and appropriate measures will be taken to ensure the continued expansion of the US economy.Obviously, the Fed removed the word “patience” from the statement and sent a more modest signal to the market, opening the door to interest rate cuts.  Just a few minutes after the Fed’s resolution was announced, the US dollar index fell sharply, quickly fell below the 97 mark, and repeatedly refreshed a week’s low.In essence, gold hit new highs.On the day of the Asian plate catheter, the spot gold went straight up and hit 1394 during the session.US $ 11 / ounce, the highest since August 30, 2013.  One trading day later, the price of gold soared to a six-year high of $ 1410 on the 21st, breaking through the long-lost threshold of $ 1400 by the way.  Economic recession and higher geopolitical risk aversion sentiment In addition to the expected increase in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, trade disputes have caused investors to invest in the global economic downturn, risk aversion and geo-conflict-induced risk aversion are another important reason for the higher gold price.  The worsening economic expectations of many European countries have provided support for gold prices.The 10-year Treasury yields of major European economies including Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Austria, Europe, etc. have appeared at levels below or near zero, and France is likely to be the next.  Faced with the deteriorating economic environment in the euro zone, European extended President Draghi said this week that if the economic outlook does not improve, additional stimulus measures may be needed next.Faced with the decline in yields on European sovereign bonds and the potential depreciation risk of the euro, investors have turned to gold and returned to the impact brought by the low interest rate market environment.  In addition, according to US media reports, the United States sent an additional 1,000 troops to the Middle East.In fact, tensions between the United States and Iran have continued to escalate after the recent attacks on two tankers.The United States says the two tankers were attacks by Iranian forces; the Iranian side has been denied.With the resurgence of the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, market risk aversion is heating up.  The purchase of gold by each country for the first 6 years is at the same time, and the long-term purchase of gold by countries for the first 6 years is the most important factor in boosting the price of gold.  According to data released by the People’s Bank of China, at the end of May, gold reserves reached 61.61 million, an increase of 510,000 from the end of April.This is the sixth consecutive month of increase in holdings of gold reserves since December 2018.  In fact, the world has initially been buying gold recently.The World Gold Council ‘s first-quarter 2019 demand for gold report states that 145 were purchased worldwide in the first quarter of the decade.5 tons of gold, an increase of 68% over the same period in 2018, which is the strongest annual start since 2013, and the highest level in 6 years.  Many institutions have joined the bullish rankings. So how much growth potential does gold have?Can Qiansi hold up?Fund Jun combed the gold price forecasts of investment banks at home and abroad.  1. Goldman Sachs: The target price for the next 12 months is $ 1425. Relatively speaking, Goldman Sachs’ valuation of gold is quite pessimistic.  Goldman Sachs expects gold to have a target price of $ 1,350 in the next three and six months and a target price of $ 1,425 in the next 12 months.Goldman Sachs also estimates that gold prices are expected to gain support in forecasting emerging market demand.  2. French foreign trade bank: Gold prices may rise to US $ 1420 to US $ 1430 before the end of the year. Gold has risen fiercely in recent days. Bernard Dahdah, precious metals analyst at Natixis said that this is mainly due to the sharp weakening of the US dollar and the attitude of the Federal Reserve.Put pressure on the dollar.Dahdah estimates that the price of gold may rise to $ 1420 to $ 1430 before the end of the year.  3. KITCO: The long-term target of gold is in the region of $ 1400-1500. Jim Wyckoff, an analyst at KITCO, believes that the five-year high of gold has provided bulls with more short-term and long-term technical power.This also indicates that the price of gold will shift to higher levels in the next few days, weeks or even months.Jim Wyckoff pointed out that an upward trend line has appeared on the monthly chart, and the next upward target is the major psychological barrier for every $ 1,000.  4. Citi: It is expected that the “gold boom” will continue. The price of gold in the next 12 months will be between 1500 and 1600 US dollars per exchange rate. Citi believes that the international gold price has risen to the highest level since 2013 and gold has returned to investmentThe focus of this issue is the result of comments from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday that it was ready to cut interest rates.The recent “bullish gold fever” is reasonable, raising the forecast for gold prices.Loose monetary policy, a weak US dollar, rising geopolitical risks and other factors are driving gold’s optimistic outlook.In a bullish situation, the price of gold in the next 12 months will be between $ 1500 and $ 1600.  5.Anson Securities: Continue to be optimistic about the rise of the main gold wave. The recent improvement in Sino-US trade frictions has eased slightly. The appreciation of the RMB has slightly suppressed the increase in the price of RMB gold.  At the current point of time, considering that the obstacles have been cleared from the economic data and the state of the policy table, once again we are optimistic about the main rising wave of gold and the medium and long-term allocation value of gold assets in the next 2-3 years.  Anxin Securities said that since the second half of 2016, the price of gold has basically returned to its previous high, but it has continued to fall, and it is estimated that it is completely thorough; the above-mentioned logic of gold bloom is being realized, the price of gold has rebounded briefly, the logic of bullish bullion has been solid for a long time, and gold stocks have advancedUsher in a strong double-click Davis market.  6.CITIC Securities: Gold opens a new bull market CITIC Securities pointed out that the leading indicators indicate that the United States is approaching the end of the economic expansion cycle, the Fed is afraid to start the rate cut cycle, the downward pressure on the US dollar index and real interest rates, and gold will start a new round of bull market.The depreciation of the RMB exchange rate has accelerated the rapid growth of the internal gold price, and A-share gold companies will usher in a “double-click on Davis” with both 淡水桑拿网 improved estimates and improved performance.Recommended companies with superior resources and technological advantages.  7.Huatai Securities: The increase in the value of gold allocation in the near-term environment may further reduce the risk substitution. The US and global economic growth is expected to be below this. There is still room for monetary policy in major economies around the world to increase the value of gold allocation.The RMB exchange rate has improved recently, and the domestic gold price trend is stronger than overseas, which is also positive for domestic gold equity assets.  Three mainstream ways to invest in gold In the current complicated international environment, gold has become an important asset allocation tool, and investors’ attention has been paid to the value of gold investment in the coming years.There are various ways to invest in gold, including buying gold ETF funds, physical gold, and futures gold.  1: Gold ETF Gold ETF is mainly invested in Shanghai Gold Exchange Au9999, which basically keeps pace with the price of gold.At present, the mainstream gold ETFs include Boshi, Huaan, Cathay Pacific, and E Fund, which have been launched on Ant Wealth and WeChat Wealth Management.The main advantage of the gold ETF is that it starts at zero yuan, and the three ETFs have a purchase rate of zero yuan, which is held for more than 30 days and is also a zero rate, which is very suitable for small white users.  It is worth mentioning that the four gold ETFs currently on the domestic market have performed well under the surge in gold. Boshi, Cathay Pacific, Huaan, and E Fund Gold ETFs all set their highest net worth records on June 20.  2: Gold in kind The Chinese have always had the tradition of buying gold, especially for Chinese New Year and the New Year.The physical gold is held in the hands, visible and tangible, and investors are more at ease.Physical gold includes gold jewelry, gold coins, and gold bars.However, if it is pure geographical wealth, it is still more cost-effective to buy gold bars, because the price of gold jewelry generally has about 30% design and processing fees, and there is a certain product premium.  3: Gold futures Gold futures investment and stock investment are similar, you need to set up a futures account with a futures company.Gold futures investment is T + 0 trading, which can be bought and sold on the same day.However, the risks of futures investment are very large, and there is a certain degree of entry-level biology. Ordinary investors need to be very careful when investing in futures.  Gold ETFs have regained their favor. Among the existing domestic gold ETFs, the gold ETFs affiliated to Huaan Fund, Cathay Pacific Fund, Boshi Fund and E Fund Fund have continued to have a net redemption this year.The total amount of money attracted exceeded 100 million yuan.  Wind Statistics shows that the gold ETF belonging to the highest-ever Hua’an Fund in the market has 5.7 million net subscriptions this week, with the latest share of 17.6.9 billion copies.E Fund Gold ETF is the gold ETF with the most net purchases. This week’s distribution increased by 12.9 million copies, with a net inflow of approximately 38.82 million funds.The size of Boshi Gold ETF can also be changed, with a net purchase volume of 11.4 million copies in the past week.In addition, Cathay Gold ETF attracted about 17 million gold.  In fact, since June, gold ETFs have shown a net purchase trend.As of June 17, Huaan Gold ETF, E Fund Gold ETF, and Cathay Gold ETF have all had net purchases since June, and they have purchased 76.8 million copies, 20.1 million copies, and 11.7 million copies.Only the Boshi Gold ETF was redeemed for 24.9 million copies.Calculated based on the average transaction price, the four gold ETFs have gained 2 since June.A net inflow of 4.9 billion yuan.  A few days ago, at the 2019 Talks · Gold and Asset Allocation High-End Summit of the Huaan Fund sponsors, Xu Zhiyan, assistant general manager of Huaan Fund pointed out that in the context of the end of the US dollar rate hike cycle, the gold ETF has ushered in the possibility of long-term investment.  Xu Zhiyan believes that the reconstruction, the global economy is still continuing, the US labor market recovery cycle that has lasted for nearly 10 years may be coming to an end, and the demand for gold hedges is returning.At the same time, the US dollar will be under pressure through the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut.As a precious metal, gold is naturally negatively correlated with the US dollar. This negative correlation is not only reflected in the valuation, but also the role of gold as a hedge against the credit of US dollar banknotes.  In Xu Zhiyan’s opinion, although the price of gold has increased from US $ 1280 to US $ 1,350 in the past few weeks, and it seems to have reflected some expectations, he believes that the price of gold is still increasing, and advises investors to allocate 5% -15% in the portfolioGold assets, especially with high liquidity and cost-effective gold ETFs, are a variety of ideal asset allocation tools.